新疆草地气候生产潜力变化特征及对气候响应的预测研究

基于新疆地区52个气象站点1959-2008年逐月气温、降水资料,利用Miami模型和Thornthwaite Memorial模型、线性趋势线、ArcGIS反距离权重插值等方法,对新疆草地生产潜力的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,近50 a来,新疆草地温度、降水、蒸散生产潜力均表现为显著增加,且四季和生长季各生产潜力也呈线性增加,夏季和生长季增幅最大,其次,草地生产潜力以及增幅均表现为北疆高于南疆,基本为由南向北递增,并和多年平均降水量变化一致。其中,水分条件是影响新疆草地生产潜力的主导因素。根据二元一次线性回归方程计算得出,年平均气温每升高/降低1 ℃,草地的年气候生产力增加/减少17.309 kg·hm-2·a-1,年降水量每增加/减少1 mm,草地的年气候生产力增加/减少24.392 kg·hm-2·a-1。

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Potential Climate Productivity of Grassland and Its Responses to Climate Change in Xinjiang,China

Based on observed data of monthly temperature and precipitation of 52 weather stations from 1959 to 2008 in Xinjiang,the spatial and temporal characteristics of potential climate productivity of grassland were analyzed with Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial models,linear trend analysis,and inverse distance weighted interpolation.Research results indicated that the grassland potential productivity induced by temperature,precipitation,evapotranspiration appeared a significant increase trend in recent 50 years in Xinjiang.The grassland potential productivity of four seasons and growing season also showed a linear increase,but such an increase was stronger in summer and in growing season than in the other seasons.The grassland potential productivity in Northern Xinjiang was more than in Southern Xinjiang as well as its increase amplitude,this change showed increasing from south to north,which is consistent to multi-year average precipitation.Moisture condition is a dominant factor for the grassland potential productivity in Xinjiang.According to a binary linear regression equation,the grassland potential productivity increase(or decrease) 17.309 kg/(hm2·a) when temperature increase(or decrease) 1 ℃per year,and the variation value for precipitation is 24.392 kg/(hm2·a).