北半球千年温度集成重建所使用的代用序列述评——以石笋为例

充分掌握过去全球气候变化的规律,是分析现在全球气候变化的关键。为了重建近2 000 a的全球（主要是北半球）的温度时空格局,Mann使用了1 209条代用序列。主要评价Mann等在重建中世纪暖期以来（公元800年以来）全球（主要是北半球）的温度时空格局时,所使用的46条代用序列中的8条石笋序列。其中北半球的序列（6条）要多于南半球的序列（2条）。通过对所选石笋序列的文献检索和科学评估,认为Mann等最初选用的8条石笋序列和筛选后剩余的6条石笋序列并非都代表温度信号,其中只有两条序列是原作者认为代表温度信号的,代表降水量信号的序列要多于代表温度信号的序列。所以Mann等选用这些序列重建温度有待商榷。由于石笋代用指标本身的复杂性,其气候指示意义仍然存在争议。

A Review of Proxy Data Used for the Northern Hemispheric Temperature Reconstruction over the Past 1 000 Years: A case study of stalagmite

Understanding how the climate changed in the past is considered to be helpful to know how the climate will change in the future. Mann et al. used 1 209 proxy series to reconstruct global scale (mainly the Northern Hemisphere) temperature variation over the past 2 000 years. In the 1 209 proxy series, Mann et al. used 46 proxy series to reconstruct the global temperature spatial patterns over the past 1 200 years, of which 8 stalagmite records (6 series from the Northern Hemisphere and 2 from the Southern Hemisphere) were included. Mann et al. chose 6 stalagmite series from the first 8 stalagmite series for final Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. In the paper, we make a review of the 8 stalagmite records. According to revisiting original literatures, not all the 6 series used by Mann et al. included the temperature signal, and only 2 series were considered to be a temperature indicator by original authors, and most of the series indicates the change in precipitation was more significant than temperature. Therefore there exists great uncertainty in the Mann's reconstruction of temperature. Given the complexity of stalagmite records, we need to investigate further their climate signal.