基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计—以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例

本文基于断裂两侧应变能积累的概念，利用新夏垫断裂上探槽研究的古地震资料和1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震的历史资料，通过原地地震复发原则来评价指定断裂（段）在某一时段内的地震危险性，探讨其在未来一段时间内可能发生地震的最大潜在震级。由此说明现今应变能确定所面临的困难，而应用局部化应变（变形）与岩石-断裂系统局部失稳临界条件之间的联系，理论上可以由变形带的宽度减小率来预估未来地震的发生时间。 

Seismic hazard parameters estimation based on strain energy accumulation in both sides of a fault:Taking the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake as an example

Based on the historical data of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake and paleo-earthquake data revealed by trenching on the Xinxiadian fault, together with the principle for earthquake recurrence in-situ on a fault or a segment, the maximum potential magnitude in the future on some segments of Xinxiadian fault is evaluated by taking consideration of the concept that strain energy accumulates on both sides of a fault. This illustrates that due to difficulty in determining the strain and stress in deep crustal rocks, the accumulated strain energy cannot be determined accurately. On the other hand, when the strain （deformation） localization is combined with the local instability critical conditions of the rock-fault system, the decreasing rate of deformation belt could be used for prediction of earthquake occurrence.