| 川滇交界地区构造应力场及强震趋势的统计预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李桂芳,程万正.川滇交界地区构造应力场及强震趋势的统计预测[J].四川地震,1994(4):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李桂芳 程万正 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对川滇地区中、强震震源机制解和中小地震平均节面解分析，指出川滇地区现今构造应力场在北西－北西西向压应力作用下，以水平剪切错动为主。同时，采用极值理论、最大信息熵、线性预测和灰色理论等方法综合分析，预测川滇地区未来强震的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 构造应力场 地震 强震 统计预测 |
Statistic Prediction of The Structural Stress Field And Trend of The Strong Earthquake In Sichuan-Yunnan Area |
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| LI Guifang,Cheng Wanzheng Zhen Jian, Wang Hong.Statistic Prediction of The Structural Stress Field And Trend of The Strong Earthquake In Sichuan-Yunnan Area[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,1994(4):1-7. |
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| Authors: | LI Guifang Cheng Wanzheng Zhen Jian Wang Hong |
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| Institution: | Seismologlcal Bureau Of Sichuan Province |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we analysed the earthquake focal mechanism of strong-moderateearthquake and the mean plane solution of moderate-small earthquake in the area whereSichuan and Yunnan meet.We consider that the horizontal shear dislocation is major and thecurrent structural stress-field is controled by the pressure stress in NW-NWW.Simultaneously,we comprehensively analysed and predicted the trend of strong earthquake inthe area using extremal theory,maximum information entropy,grey theory and so on. |
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| Keywords: | maximum principle stress extremal model maximum entropy spectrum analysis grey theory strong earthquake trend prediction |
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