Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change |
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Authors: | Thomas Kleinen Gerhard Petschel-Held |
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Institution: | (1) Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, P. O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany;(2) Present address: Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK |
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Abstract: | An approach to considering changes in flooding probability in the integrated assessment of climate change is introduced. A
reduced-form hydrological model for flood prediction and a downscaling approach suitable for integrated assessment modeling
are presented. Based on these components, the fraction of world population living in river basins affected by changes in flooding
probability in the course of climate change is determined. This is then used as a climate impact response function in order
to derive emission corridors limiting the population affected. This approach illustrates the consideration of probabilistic
impacts within the framework of the tolerable windows approach. Based on the change in global mean temperature, as calculated
by the simple climate models used in integrated assessment, spatially resolved changes in climatic variables are determined
using pattern scaling, while natural variability in these variables is considered using twentieth century deviations from
the climatology. Driven by the spatially resolved climate change, the hydrological model then aggregates these changes to
river basin scale. The hydrological model is subjected to a sensitivity analysis with regard to the water balance, and the
uncertainty arising through the different projections of changes in mean climate by differing climate models is considered
by presenting results based on different models. The results suggest that up to 20% of world population live in river basins
that might inevitably be affected by increased flood events in the course of global warming, depending on the climate model
used to estimate the regional distribution of changes in climate.
This article is dedicated to the memory of the late Gerhard Petschel-Held. He was an inspiring colleague, as well as a good
friend. His sudden departure leaves me deeply shocked, and I am sure he will sorely be missed by all who had the pleasure
of meeting him. Thomas Kleinen |
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