| Abstract: | Vegetation in hot and arid valleys is a crucial indicator of ecosystem health, but is vulnerable to human activities and environmental change. Using the Longkaikou Reservoir in the Jinsha River in southwestern China as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit model that combined the plant growth, fruiting, seed dispersal, and seed germination stages to reveal the potential impact of multiple human activities(reservoir construction, logging, grazing, and aerial seeding) on the vegetation dynamics of Dodonaea viscosa and Pinus yunnanensis. After reservoir construction, the grassland area of 68 km~2 in 2003 decreased to 24 km~2 in 2018, replaced by forest, shrubland, and bodies of water, and the precipitation increased during the dry season, which indicated the improvement of the local plant and soil environment. Our model predicted that when soil moisture decreased by more than 20% compared to current levels, the area of D. viscosa increased greatly at low elevations; however, when at higher soil moisture, P. yunnanensis would occupy more of the study area. Logging and grazing would slightly change the spatial pattern of vegetation and delay P. yunnanensis communities from achieving stability by directly reducing plant biomass. Countermeasures such as aerial seeding would increase the total area by 13.13 km~2 and 8.09 km~2 of two plants, respectively, and accelerate the stabilization of plant communities. The effects of multiple human activities on vegetation may counteract each other; for example, logging decreased the P. yunnanensis area whereas aerial seeding increased it, and plant biomass changed in response to this pressure. Given the complex relationships between vegetation and human impacts, our study provides a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological security in this hot and arid valley. |
