对安康水库诱发地震的预测

本文对安康水库地质构造背景、水文地质条件、地震活动特点以及区域内现代应力场作了分析,并通过与条件类似的国内外诱发地震水库类比,对安康(火石岩)水库进行了时、空、强参数预测,认为:当水库水位达到设计水位线330m高程后的1～3年内,库区内会诱发4～5级地震。同时指出了诱震区范围。

MONITORING EARTHQUAKES INDUCED BY ANKANG RESERVOIR

After analyzing the geological structure background, hydrogeologic condition, seismicity feature and local present stress field near the Ankang reservoir, the author made a prediction in parameter with time, space and strength that when the reservoir level reaches to the design level 330 m in 1-3 years, it would induce earthquakes with magnitude 4-5. And meanwhile, the region of induced area is pointed out.