Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths |
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Authors: | R P Kane |
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Institution: | 1.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias,S?o Jose dos Campos,Brazil |
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Abstract: | If the rise time RT, fall time FT, and total time TT (i.e., RT+FT) of a solar cycle are compared against the maximum amplitude Rz(max ) for the following cycle, then only the association between TT and Rz(max ) is inferred to be well anticorrelated, inferring that the larger (smaller) the value of Rz(max ) for the following cycle, the shorter (longer) the TT of the preceding cycle. Although the inferred correlation (−0.68)
is statistically significant, the inferred standard error of estimate is quite large, so predictions using the inferred correlation
are not very precise. Removal of cycle pairs 15/16, 19/20, and 20/21 (statistical outliers) yields a regression that is highly
statistically significant (−0.85) and reduces the standard error of estimate by 18%. On the basis of the adjusted regression
and presuming TT=140 months for cycle 23, the present ongoing cycle, cycle 24’s 90% prediction interval for Rz(max ) is estimated to be about 94±44, inferring only a 5% probability that its Rz(max ) will be larger than about 140, unless of course cycle pair 23/24 is a statistical outlier. |
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