| 新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王澄海,王芝兰,沈永平.新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王澄海 王芝兰 沈永平 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学,大气科学学院,甘肃,兰州,730000;中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)项目，国家自然科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析比较参加CMIP3计划的全球气候模式,在20C3M下各模式1961-1999年平均积雪深度和观测资料比较的基础上,检验了模式对积雪深度的模拟能力.在此基础上,选用INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T47_1模式对北疆地区未来50 a的积雪变化进行了预估.由于受GCM的空间分辨率和新疆北部地区地形、盆地沙漠下垫面、水汽来源和干旱气候环境的影响,CMIP3模式的GCM在新疆北部地区的模拟能力有限.通过相关系数和均方差误差的双重检验,选取了在新疆地区模拟能力较好的INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T47_1模式的模拟结果对新疆地区未来的积雪变化进行了预测.结果表明,在A1B、B1情景下,2002-2050年,总体上新疆北部地区的积雪深度均呈减少趋势;A2情景下,INM-CM3.0、CGCM-T47-1模式在准葛尔盆地地区积雪变化的模拟结果存在差异,但未来40 a新疆地区除天山附近外,积雪深度变化呈减少趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 积雪深度 气候情景 CIMP3计划 积雪预测 新疆北部 |
A Prediction of Snow Cover Depth in the Northern Xinjiang in the Next 50 Years |
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| WANG Cheng-hai,WANG Zhi-lan,SHEN Yong-ping.A Prediction of Snow Cover Depth in the Northern Xinjiang in the Next 50 Years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2010,32(6). |
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| Authors: | WANG Cheng-hai WANG Zhi-lan SHEN Yong-ping |
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| Institution: | WANG Cheng-hai1,WANG Zhi-lan1,SHEN Yong-ping2(1.School of Atmosphere Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China,2 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,China) |
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| Abstract: | A prediction of snow cover depth change in northern Xinjiang in the next 50 a is made used by GCM simulation,which joins the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3).Firstly,the snow cover data observed and simulated by 20C3M during 1961-2000 are analyzed and compared,and then the performance of the models in snow cover is examined.Because of the effects of terrains,desert and arid climate environment in northern Xinjiang,as well as the resolution of GCM,the performance of GCM is limited.Secondly,based ... |
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| Keywords: | snow cover depth climate scenarios Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CIMP3) snow cover prediction the northern Xinjiang |
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