统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。

"Statistical", "Empirical", and "Physical":Approaches to Earthquake Forecast/Prediction in Recent Years and Their Implications

Studies of earthquake forecast/prediction in the turn of the centuries were discussed in the perspective of "statistical","empirical",and "physical" approaches. "Statistical" approaches include the statistical test of earthquake prediction schemes,"statistical seismology",and application of statistical physics to earthquake forecast/prediction. "Empirical" approaches include the searching of candidate earthquake precursors,construction of simple models relating observed anomalies to the process of earthquake preparation,finding of new observational phenomena with implications for earthquake forecast/prediction,and monitoring of time-dependent properties of earth medium. "Physical" approaches include the models of earthquake preparation and occurrence,observation and experiment of the properties of earthquake fault zone,and detection and drilling of earthquake sources. Relation between "statistical","empirical",and "physical" approaches was discussed,questioning the strategy "transforming empirical/statistical approaches to physical ones" which has been well-accepted in China.