Time-dependent seismicity in China |
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| Affiliation: | 1. IAG, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1226, 05508-090, São Paulo, SP, Brasil;2. Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Santarém, PA, Brasil;3. Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, University of California at Davis, CA, USA;1. Florida Space Institute, University of Central Florida, 12354 Research Parkway, Orlando, FL, 32826, USA;2. Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, The University of Colorado Boulder, 3775 Discovery Drive, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA;1. Department of Pathology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China;2. Department of Pathophysiology, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS), School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College(PUMC), China;3. Department of Anatomy, School of Basic Medicine, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, PR China |
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| Abstract: | Precise zonation of the territory of China has been performed based on the active known faults, type of faulting and seismicity level. One hundred and forty seven seismogenic regions were defined, forming 10 larger seismic areas, and the seismotectonic characteristics in each one of them were investigated in detail. After checking for data accuracy and completeness of the shallow earthquakes (h≤60 km), the regional time and magnitude predictable model was applied and the model parameters were estimated. Based on the model applicability in the studied area, probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M≥6.0) earthquakes during the next 10 years were calculated for each seismogenic region. Statistical tests have been used proving the superiority of the model in comparison with the time independent one, as well as in comparison with the actual earthquake occurrence. |
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