混凝土大坝震害评估模型的研究及对黄河上游大坝的分析

利用前人所编的历代（共四代）地震烈度（地震动）区划图,组合叠加后得到一个综合烈度（地震动）。这种叠加是一个集成的专家系统综合认识结果,以此作为坝体可能遭受地震破坏危险的因素。初步研究建立了混凝土大坝震害评估模型,此模型是考虑了坝体的结构类型、建设年代、使用现状、场地条件、抗震设防水平等因素,用逐步线性拟合方法进行回归分析得到的。用此模型对汶川地震破坏的坝体进行了实例分析,分析结果比较符合实际。最后,用这个模型对黄河上游10座重点混凝土大坝做了震害评估分析。

Study on the Evalution of Earthquake Damage to Concrete Dams in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River

Using the four generations of earthquake intensity zoning of China,integrated intensity values are superimposed.The overlay is an integrated comprehensive understanding of the results of expert system.The integrated intensity valuse may be as a risk of dam subjected to earthquake damage factors.Initial research established model of earthquake damage assessment of concrete dams.The model considers the structure of the type of dam,construction age,use status,site conditions,seismic fortification levels and other factors,and obtaines results by stepwise linear regression analysis method of fitting.Four conerete dams in Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed.The results are analyzed by comparing with the real seismic damage and the reliability of the judgment model is verified by the results.Finally,ten key concrete dams in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are analyzed.