基于非线性自激振动指数自回归模型与地震活动研究

地震活动表现出平静和活跃相互轮回的特征，发震频度和震级则表现出在活跃期维持相对较高的水平，而在平静期维持相对较低的水平。为了探索这种活动机制，本文用基于非线性自激振动的指数自回归模型来研究这些特征。结论指出，指数自回归模型较好地反映了地震活动的前述特征，同时体现了本世纪以来地震活动的衰减趋势。借助非线性振动的思想和方法揭示地震活动的动力机制是有可能的。

THE STUDY ON EXPONENTIAL AUTOREGRESSION MODEL ORIGINATED FROM NON-LINEAR AUTO-VIBRATION AND SEISMICITY

The seismicity is characterized by the higher level in active period but the lower level in quiet for magnitude and frequency,and the interlace of these two periods.To study this mecha-nism,we used the exponential autoregression model which is originated from non-linear auto-vibration.The results show that the exponential autoregression nodel better reveals the preced-ing characters of seismicity,meanwhile the attenuation trend in this century is obtained.Itis possible to expose the dynamical mechanism of earthquake according to the method of non-linear vibration.