信江流域洪峰期水位预测方法初探

采用2003～2006年5～9月水位及同期日雨量资料,以信江流域为例,利用逐步回归方法对洪峰期内梅港的水位与前期各气象站日降水量的关系进行了研究,并建立洪峰水位预测模型。结果表明:该模型有一定的预测准确率;各站降水产生的地表径流在24 h之内就能影响到下游的梅港水文站水位;距离梅港水文站最近的气象站前2 d的24 h降水产生的壤中流和地下径流对梅港洪峰期水位也有显著影响;此外,当梅港水位位于21 m之上时拟合绝对误差明显增大,当水位峰值小于23 m时,其拟合值偏大,当水位峰值大于23 m时,其拟合值偏小。

Flood Level Prediction of XinJiang Valley

Using the water level and the corresponding daily rain fall data during May-September of 2003-2006 year,the flood level forecast model of MeiGang on XinJiang valley is established based on the stepwise regression with Xinjiang valley as example.Results show that: as a simple model,it is available for flood level forecast to a certain extent;the water level on Meigang harbor in 24 hours may be influenced by surface runoff origined from heavy rain;the water level on MeiGang harbor could also be affected distinctly by the interflow and the underground runoff resulted from heavy rain close with it.Moreover,the absolute fitting error get higher evidently as the level reaches above 21m.The fitting value is higher than the fact when the level is below 23m.