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Real-time forecasting of water table depth and soil moisture profiles
Authors:Ate Visser  Roelof Stuurman  Marc FP Bierkens
Institution:1. TNO-Netherlands Institute of Applied Geoscience, P.O. Box 80015, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands;2. Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
Abstract:We present a method for real-time forecasting of water table depth and soil moisture profiles. The method combines a simple form of data-assimilation with a moving window calibration of a deterministic model describing flow in the unsaturated zone and local as well as regional drainage. The local drainage level is calibrated on-line using a moving window calibration. Assigning more weight to the last available measurements then yields a form of model adaptation that is in between on-line calibration and data-assimilation (i.e. a simplified form of Newtonian nudging). Five-day hydrological forecasts are performed based on 5-day weather forecasts, while on-line observations of phreatic level and soil moisture content are assimilated on a daily basis. Advantages of the proposed method are that it improves the real-time forecasts compared to off-line calibration and ordinary moving window calibration and that it yields physically consistent soil moisture profiles.
Keywords:Water table depth  Soil moisture  On-line forecast  Calibration  Data-assimilation
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