A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error |
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Authors: | Jens Christian Refsgaard Jeroen P van der Sluijs James Brown Peter van der Keur |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Hydrology, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Oster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark;2. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Department of Science Technology and Society, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;3. University of Amsterdam (UVA), Amsterdam, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | Although uncertainty about structures of environmental models (conceptual uncertainty) is often acknowledged to be the main source of uncertainty in model predictions, it is rarely considered in environmental modelling. Rather, formal uncertainty analyses have traditionally focused on model parameters and input data as the principal source of uncertainty in model predictions. The traditional approach to model uncertainty analysis, which considers only a single conceptual model, may fail to adequately sample the relevant space of plausible conceptual models. As such, it is prone to modelling bias and underestimation of predictive uncertainty. |
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Keywords: | Environmental modelling Model error Model structure Conceptual uncertainty Scenario analysis Pedigree |
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