| 相似方法在新疆强降水短期预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐冶,李如琦. 相似方法在新疆强降水短期预报中的应用[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象), 2008, 2(5): 20-23 |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐冶 李如琦 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆气象台 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1975-2005年NCEP再分析资料及ECMWF预报场资料，引入相似指数综合考虑各要素场、形势场对新疆强降水天气的影响建立相似预报模型，并选取一次中等强度天气用该模型进行试报检验。结果表明，该模型综合考虑了形势场、多种物理量场的相互作用，预报效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 相似预报 相似指数 强降水 |
Application of Analog Method to Strong Precipitation Short-term Forecast in Xinjiang |
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| TANG Ye and LI Ru-qi. Application of Analog Method to Strong Precipitation Short-term Forecast in Xinjiang[J]. Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology, 2008, 2(5): 20-23 |
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| Authors: | TANG Ye and LI Ru-qi |
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| Affiliation: | TANG Ye,LI Ru-qi (Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China) |
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| Abstract: | By using NCEP-RE and ECMWF forecast fields data from 1975 to 2005,introduced analog index and took into account the impact of meteorological element fields and situation fields on the strong precipitation weather in Xinjiang,we set up analog prediction model,moreover choose a medium intensity weather in 2007 with this model to test and verify.The result indicates that the model considers the interactions of situation fields and multi-physical quantity fields,and its forecasting effect to be fairly better. |
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| Keywords: | analog prediction analog index strong rainfall |
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