Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone |
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Authors: | Maria Snoussi Tachfine OuchaniSaïda Niazi |
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Institution: | University Mohamed V, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Avenue Ibn Battota, BP 1014, Rabat, Morocco |
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Abstract: | The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a ‘best estimate’ of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a ‘worst-case’ scenario, obtained by combining the ‘economic development first’ scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a ‘best-case’ scenario, by combining the ‘sustainability first’ scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identified both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise. |
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Keywords: | sea-level rise Morocco Mediterranean coastal zone impacts assessment adaptation |
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