KFC在北京城区的空间扩散模型

文化扩散是文化地理学和传播学的重要研究内容。以往关于文化扩散的模型多以时间为主要变量， 少以空间位置作为变量。文化地理学更关注有空间变量的模型。本文以美国肯德基炸鸡连锁店(KFC) 为例， 分析外来连锁消费企业在北京城区的空间扩散。KFC 的扩散属 于扩展扩散， 该类扩散对目的地的要求高于迁移扩散， 而北京为KFC 早期的进入提供了社会基础。以KFC 总部提供的数据建立了刻画扩散过程的数学模型， 以期对以往研究有所补足。 研究发现KFC 不是按商业中心地等级扩散的， 因此以商业中心地等级为基础设计了6 级扩散 环。以环级数、极半径作为空间变量的建模尝试均不理想； 以极角度作为空间变量的模型通过检验。研究结论为： ① 极半径、极角度和扩散环是以往扩散模型中没有使用过的空间变量， 且极角度模型通过了检验。② 所建模型可为中档大众消费连锁式餐饮企业在大都市内部的布局提供一种决策参考， 即中心扩散应强于周边扩散， 但方位上差别不明显。③ KFC 扩散主要受经济规律控制。本文的不足是把扩散环级作为静态的空间基础， 同时也没考虑同一商圈内其他同类快餐连锁店的竞争关系。本研究因数据局限模型变量较少。

A Modeling of KFC's Spatial Diffusion in Beijing City

Cultural diffusion is an important part of study in cultural geography and communication. The current models of cultural diffusion take time as a variable and some of them take location as a variable. Cultural geography pays attention to the spatial diffusion of cultural phenomena. Therefore, diffusion models describing spatial changes are required. Setting Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) as a research object, this paper builds models to analyze how foreign catering chain stores are spatially diffused within Beijing City. KFC's diffusion is a typical expending diffusion. This kind of diffusion has spatial preference. The social structure of Beijing made a good base for KFC's entering in the late 1980s. This modeling analysis is based on the data given by KFC's headquarter in Beijing and aims to set models with spatial variables. This study found KFC's diffusion does not follow the grade of commercial central places in Beijing City. Five diffusion rings in this paper are designed as spatial variables. The Ring Order Model and Radius Model can not pass their tests, while Alpha Model passes. Alpha Model depicts the relation between diffusion directions of KFC and their opening order. The three conclusions of this paper are: (1) In comparison to former models, this paper designs three new spatial variables for diffusion models of KFC. Alpha Model has passed its reliable test. It could be applied in forecasting the direction of a new KFC approximately. (2) These models, in addition to yielding new insights into the processes involved in spatial diffusion, are helpful for middle class catering chain stores in site selection. The Alpha Model is better for selecting than Ring-Order Model and Radius Model. (3) Economic factors have greater influence on KFC's diffusion. The Ring Order in this paper shows the consumption levels. One of the shortcomings in this paper is taking diffusion rings as static ones. Another one is ignoring the competition of other catering chain stores in the same commercial area. Lacking of census data, the models in this paper have less variables.