基于SLAMM模型的海平面上升对广西沿海红树林影响研究

本文基于SLAMM模型分析了不同情景下海平面上升对广西沿海红树林分布面积的影响及其空间差异,通过对比实验定量分析了潮差和沉积速率的作用。结果显示,与基准年2007年相比,2100年广西红树林面积在当前海平面上升速率、典型浓度路径RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别减少0.57%、4.99%、7.99%和17.39%,珍珠港、茅尾海、丹兜海和英罗港受影响程度较大。当地潮差与红树林面积减少率呈负相关关系。需维持红树林生长区域的沉积速率以应对未来的海平面加速上升。

Study on impact of sea level rise on mangrove in Guangxi of China based on SLAMM model

Based on different sea level rise (SLR) scenarios, the impact of SLR on mangrove of Guangxi of China and its spatial variability is studied utilizing SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model). The role of tidal range and accretion is analyzed quantitatively by conducting comparison experiment. Results indicate that the reduction rate of the mangrove area by 2100 is 0.57%, 4.99%, 7.99% and 17.39% under the present SLR rate and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively with reference to 2007. The mangrove of Pearl Bay, Maowei Sea,Dandou Sea and Yingluo Bay are deeply affected by SLR. There is a negative correlativity between local tidal range and reduction rate of the mangrove area. Maintaining the rate of accretion is necessary for mangrove to adapt to the accelerated SLR in the futurey.