中国县域城镇化发展格局及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据

利用2000 和2010 年中国人口普查分县数据，借助空间分析方法揭示近期中国常住人口城镇化格局特征及其动态变化，结合多元回归模型探讨城镇化空间分异的主要影响因素，基于主成分分析和聚类分析进行中国城镇化发展类型区划分。结果表明：① 2000-2010 年，中国常住人口城镇化率不断提高，年均增加1.3 个百分点，32%的县域城镇化水平年均增长超过1.5 个百分点；② 中国城镇化发展存在区域差异性和“低快高慢”的收敛性，东部、东北、中部、西部四大区域城镇化率年均分别增加1.4、0.5、1.4 和1.3 个百分点；③ 60%的中国县域城镇化发展集中在低城镇化率—高增长率、低城镇化率—中高增长率和低城镇化率—中增长率三种类型，且以中、西部地区分布最为密集；④ 中国县域城镇化格局基本未变，仍以珠三角、长三角、京津冀三大增长极的城镇化发展较为突出，东部地区及内陆省会城市周边的城镇化水平也相对较高；⑤ 经济发展水平、产业结构特征、人力资本状况、人口集聚能力、公共服务水平、地理区位特征对县域城镇化空间分异具有显著而稳健的影响；⑥ 中国城镇化格局可分为具有明显区类一致性和区外异质性的5 大类、20 个区域。新时期的城镇化发展应凸显地域功能、提升承载能力、夯实产业基础、强调节约集约。

Spatial pattern and influencing factors of urbanization development in China at county level:A quantitative analysis based on 2000 and 2010 census data

China has entered a new stage of rapid urbanization characterized by a critical period of transformation and in-depth development. Emphasizing people-oriented urbanization and optimizing the urbanization pattern is one of the important fields of national strategic decision at present. Using 2000 and 2010 census data, this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics, influencing factors and zoning scheme of recent China's urbanization development at county level, based on spatial analysis, multiple regression and cluster analysis. The main results are summed up as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2010, the residential population urbanization rate experienced a rapid increase and showed obvious regional difference. The average urbanization level of all counties increased by 1.3 percentage points annually. In 32% of all the counties the urbanization level increased by 1.5 percentage points annually. The urbanization level of eastern coastal, northeast, central and western China increased by 1.4, 0.5, 1.4 and 1.3 percentage points annually, respectively. (2) The urbanization pattern tcounty level changed little during the study period.Counties with high urbanization level are mainly distributed in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing- Tianjin- Hebei region, and eastern coastal region and provincial cities. Some 60% of counties can be divided into the categories of low urbanization level-high growth rate, low urbanization level- medium high growth rate, and low urbanization level- medium growth rate. And the three types of counties are mainly distributed in the central and western China. (3) Economic development, industrial structure, human capital, population agglomeration ability and geographical location influenced the spatial disparities of county urbanization significantly. (4) China's rbanization development at county level can be divided into five categories and 20 areas. In the new period, the development of urbanization should highlight the regional function, enhance the resources and environment carrying capacity, strengthen the industrial foundation,and emphasize the conservation and intensive use of resources.