1961-2013年全球橡胶生产时空演变特征

橡胶生产关乎国计民生,特别是天然橡胶,其与钢铁、石油、煤炭并称四大工业原料,为重要的战略物资。本文基于FAO橡胶数据库,从全球、区域、国家等层次定量分析了1961-2013年全球橡胶生产的时空格局及其演变特征,探讨了影响橡胶产量的主要因素。结果表明：①从时间格局上看,1961年以来全球橡胶总产增速较快,总体呈上升趋势;橡胶主要生产国(主产国)产量占全球的90%以上,并存在明显的阶段性增长特征。②就空间格局而言,橡胶生产具有明显的地域集中性,主产国集中分布在亚洲特别是东南亚,其中以泰国、马来西亚和印尼最为集中,但其产量差异显著并有进一步扩大趋势。③种植面积是主产国橡胶产量的主要影响因子;少部分国家(如中国、泰国)受橡胶单产水平的影响明显。④全球橡胶生产由传统“三巨头(泰国、马来西亚和印尼)”向“双核(泰国和印尼)”集聚,东南亚主产国橡胶林由海岛国家向中南半岛扩展,且中南半岛发展势头强劲,已成为全球橡胶主产区中的优势产区。

Spatiotemporal changes of global rubber production during 1961-2013

Natural rubber is one of the four main raw materials (steel, petroleum, coal, and rubber) of industry and a globally important strategic material. Using concentration index and two-way analysis of variance method and the rubber production data of 1961-2013 at provincial, national and global scales from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT), we quantified the spatial and temporal patterns and change of rubber production and investigated the main influencing factors of these changes. The results show that: (1) Since 1961, the global total rubber production has achieved great development, showing an overall increasing trend. The rubber production of the major rubber-producing countries of Asian (MRPCA) accounted for more than 90% of global output, with a clear multi-stage growth trend in 1961-2013. (2) Spatially, rubber production showed a concentrated pattern in the MRPCA, especially in Southeast Asia, including the most concentrated countries of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The disparities of national rubber production were significant among the MRPCA and the gaps further expanded during this time period. (3) The main factor affecting rubber production was plantation area. But in a few countries such as China and Thailand, rubber production was mainly impacted by rubber yield. (4) Global rubber production changes from "big three (Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia)" to a "dual core (Thailand and Indonesia)" distribution. Rubber plantations of the MRPCA generally expanded northward from the countries of island Southeast Asia to the counterparts in mainland Southeast Asia. The latter has become an advantage region in major rubber producing area of the world that shows great potential.