1960~2013年华北平原气候变化时空特征及其对太阳活动和大气环境变化的响应

根据华北平原67个气象站点和14个辅助气象站点1960~2013年的日均温和日降水量数据,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall突变检测法和累积距平法等,对华北地区近54 a不同研究尺度下的气候变化趋势、突变情况以及其与太阳活动和大气环境变化的关系进行研究。结果表明：1960~2013年,华北平原年均温在11.86~14.33℃之间波动,整体呈现显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.23℃/10a。其中大气环境中浑浊度的升高,春季气温的抬升、是区域平均气温升高的诱因。气温的升高推动了>15℃等温线控制范围的扩张和年均温0℃等值线在华北平原的消失。华北平原年降水在617.96~1 060.30 mm之间波动,整体呈现显著减少趋势,气候倾向率为-1.75 mm/10,其中秋季降水量减少过快,400~600 mm降水等值线控制范围的扩大、600~800 mm和800~1 000 mm降水等值线的范围的缩小,共同造成区域降水量的减少。四季气候倾向率的特征变化敏感区域主要位于北纬35°~39°之间。1991~1994年为华北平原气候的突变时期,且这一突变受太阳活动的影响更多。太阳活动对最高气温的影响较大,浑浊度对最低气温的影响较大。大气环境因子中的日照百分比率、相对湿度、风速和浑浊度与气温整体变化平均相关系数为0.74。气候条件越好,气溶胶含量越低,太阳辐射与年均温的相关系数越高。气溶胶含量越高,浑浊度因子与年均温的相关系数也越高。人类活动导致的气溶胶含量的增加,是该区域气温升高的主要外因。

Temporal Trend of Climate Change and Mutation Analysis of North China Plain During 1960 to 2013

North China plain is a geographically significant part of China. The climate change, which created the unique climate pattern and characteristics, has a non-negligible impact on the eco-system of the countryin this area. Based on historical data (1960-2013) on daily temperature and precipitation obtained from 82 meteorological stations, together with solar activity and atmosphere environment data scattered in North China plain, this paper makes a comprehensive investigation of the patterns and features of the climate using climate tendency method, Mann-Kendall test method and cumulative anomaly method. The results reveal that the annual mean temperature varied between 11.86℃ and 14.33℃, and the temperature increased slightly with the rate of 0.23°C/10a, (P< 0.01). This ascend may be due to the rise of turbidity in the atmosphere environment, the disappearance of the 0°C isotherm, the rise of spring temperatures , and the increase of the isotherm (>15°C) area. At the same time, precipitation varied between 617.96-1060.30 mm, decreased significantly with the rate of -1.75 mm/10a,(P>0.05). The expanding of the 400-600 mm precipitation contour area, the narrowing of ranges of 600-800 mm and 800-1000 mm, and excessive reduction of autumn precipitation indicates less precipitation. And all precipitation contours showed a northward movement. The sensitive areas of characteristic climatic change were mainly located between the latitudes 35°-39°. The climate mutation, occurred during 1991-1994, has been proved have more relationship with the solar activity. The influence of solar activity on maximum temperature was bigger, and the influence of turbidity on minimum temperature was more significant. Atmosphere environmental factors of the sunshine percentage, relative humidity, and wind speed had the high correlation with the temperature change,which the average correlation coefficient was 0.74. The better climatic condition, the lower content of aerosol, and the correlation coefficient of solar radiation and annual average temperature was higher. The correlation coefficient of turbidity and annual average temperature was higher when the content of aerosol is higher. The increase of the content of aerosol caused by human activity is the main external cause to the rise of the area temperature.