1978~2014年中国城市化与经济增长关系研究——基于省域面板数据

利用省域面板数据进行单位根检验和协整检验,对1978~2014年中国(不包括港澳台地区)经济增长和城市化的关系,以及不同省域经济增长与城市化作用程度进行研究,同时运用Mann-Kendall方法将中国城市化增长分成1978~1995年和1996~2014年两个阶段,并对不同阶段中国省域经济增长和城市化的相互作用关系进行研究,结果表明：① 1978~2014年中国经济增长对城市化具有促进作用,从各省域的相互作用程度来看呈现中东部较低,西南和东北部较高的区域格局,同时此阶段城市化对于经济增长的作用并没有得到证实。② 1978~1995年中国城市化和经济增长之间的相互作用关系没有得到证实。③ 1996~2014年中国城市化与经济增长相互促进,从各省域城市化对经济增长的作用强度来看呈现出中东部低,而周边内陆省区高的区域格局,而经济增长对城市化作用的区域格局与之相反。

The Relationship of Urbanization and Economic Growth in China Based on the Provincial Panel Data in 1978-2014

After the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of China's economic and acceleration urbanization, the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in China has received more and more attention. Building up the panel data model based on the panel data of thirty provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, this article studies the interaction between urbanization and economic growth from 1978 to 2014. At the same time, through comparatively analyzing the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in the different stages of urbanization since 1978, the article tries to reveal the interactive difference between urbanization and economic growth in the different stages of urbanization, and the change of regional pattern stemming from the interaction between urbanization and economic growth. Based on the Mann-Kendall method, the article divides the development of China’s urbanization into two stages of 1978-1995 and 1996-2014. Through the unit root test and cointegration test by the panel data of provinces, the article analyzes the interactive degree of urbanization and economic growth comparatively in the different stages since 1978. The research results show as follows: 1) In 1978-2014, Chinese economic growth promotes urbanization and forms the regional pattern of presentation low in central and high in the north and the south China. At the same time, the role of urbanization for the economic growth has not been confirmed. 2) The interaction between urbanization and economic growth is not confirmed in 1978-1995. 3) In 1996-2014, Chinese urbanization and China’s economic growth are of mutual promotion obviously, and urbanization role in promoting economic growth is greater than the role of economic growth. Regional pattern formed by economic growth promoting urbanization show features of high in Middle East China and low in the inland areas, while the truth is just the reverse about regional pattern formed by urbanization promoting economic growth. All of those show that in the more developed areas economic growth promotes a more significant to urbanization, and in the backward areas urbanization gives a great push to economic growth.