Assessing mitigation-adaptation scenarios for reducing catastrophic climate risk |
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Authors: | Chad Settle Jason F Shogren Sally Kane |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, OK 74104-3189, USA;(2) Department of Economics and Finance, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071-3985, USA;(3) National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, USA |
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Abstract: | Countries can use both mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect their citizens from catastrophic risk posed by climate
change (e.g., shift in the jet stream). A nation can mitigate by reducing CO2 emissions, which reduces the probability of a catastrophic event; it can adapt by altering the infrastructure so that damages
can be reduced in the event a catastrophe is realized. Herein we add to the current literature by extending the endogenous
risk framework into a dynamic framework permitting analysis of both mitigation and adaptation while allowing for the dynamic
process of global climate change. Our results suggest adaptation to catastrophe is a small fraction of the national climate
protection budget relative to mitigation when nations cooperate fully, when damages are both continuous and catastrophic,
and when nations have a short planning horizon. Adaptation becomes more important relative to mitigation when nations are
unlikely to cooperate, when damages are mainly catastrophic, or when the nation’s planning horizon increases. |
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