天山北坡经济带可持续发展能力的综合评价

通过选取经济、社会、生态环境三方面24个与天山北坡经济带11个市县可持续发展密切相关的原始指标．通过因子分析对原始指标进行两级降维处理，最后得到3个综合指标。根据综合得分的数值对天山北坡经济带可持续发展能力进行排序，从高到低依次为：克拉玛依市、乌鲁木齐市、石河子市、乌苏市、奎屯市、米泉市、沙湾县、昌青市、阜康市、玛纳斯县、呼图壁县。结合地域特征划分出3类可持续发展类型区：（1）综合经济实力型和工业经济主导型“强”可持续发展地区；（2）工业经济与农业经济均衡型“中”可持续发展地区；（3）农业经济主导型“弱”可持续发展地区。并对各类型区可持续发展能力的构成因素进行了分析。同时对天山北坡经济带的可持续发展提出了一些建议。

Synthesized Evaluation on the Sustainable Development Capacity of the Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains

In this paper 24 indexes,related to the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,are chosen as the original evaluation variables.Using the factor analysis method,the 24 variables are derived from 3 factors.According to the comprehensive values of the factors,the sorting of the sustainable development capacity of the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is as Karamay City(1.260 342),Urumqi City(0.900 409),Shihezi City(0.128 685),Usu City(0.112 758),Kuytun City(-0.036 02),Miquan City(-0.143 2),Shawan County(-0.266 81),Changji City(-0.373 38),Fukang City(-0.399 44),Manas Country(-0.559 31) and Hutubi Country(-0.624 04).According to the sustainable development capability and the local conditions,the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is divided into three types:(1) The most powerful sustainable development areas with the synthetic economic strength dominated by industrial economy;(2) The moderate sustainable development areas with the balanced industrial economy and agricultural economy;(3) The weak sustainable development areas where agricultural economy is dominant.The factors affecting sustainable development in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are analyzed.Moreover,some suggestions for the sustainable development in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are put forward.In the development process of the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,the regions with powerful economic strength and the industrial proportion are increased.However,it is suggested to regulate the agricultural and industrial structure.