湖南春季低温冷害预报系统的建立和应用

本文针对湖南春季低温冷害具有多发性的事实，为提高短期气候预测准确率，在分析其影响成因的基础上．从大气环流变化、前期秋冬季天气气候特征、太阳黑子变化特征等方面选取预报因子，进行优化组合，建立了预报因子库和预报规则库。统计分析了赤道东太平洋海温异常、冬季青藏高原积雪异常对春季低温冷害的影响。预报系统用数据库软件Access2000编制。经过对近40 a的历史回报及2001～2003年的试报，结果表明使用效果较好。

ESTABLISHMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING CHILLING DAMAGE IN SPRING OF HUNAN

Based on the fact that chilling damage is universal in spring of Hunan and its cause analysis,forecast factors and regular databases are established to improve the accuracy of short-term climatological forecast from the aspects of atmosphere circulation changes,synoptic climatological characteristic in prophasic autumn and winter,sunspot change characteristic,sea surface temperature anomaly in equatorial eastern Pacific,Qinghai-Xizang plateau snow cover in winter and so on.The forecast system software is developed by the Access2000.Through historical fitting of 40 years and experimental forecast from 2001 to 2003,the results show that it's of good use.