碳汇管理政策影响分析模型与应用

应用数理统计方法构建评价碳汇管理政策影响分析模型,模拟农田碳汇管理政策的影响。山东省冬小麦种植的案例研究表明,在常规耕作、秸秆还田和休耕3种政策措施两两组合构成的3种情景下,农田碳汇管理政策的绩效及农户作物种植行为存在较大差异。基于利益最大化的基本经济学假设,研究政府在采用不同碳汇管理政策措施的背景下,农民选择不同碳汇管理措施的机会成本及收益变化,模拟农民调整作物种植行为的决策过程。研究表明,利用以县(市、区)为基本单元的农业生产数据和农产品价格、农作物播种面积等数据,可以构建农田碳汇管理政策影响分析模型,模拟不同碳汇管理政策下农民决策行为,推算出采用各种碳汇管理措施下作物种植面积的变化,从而为评价区域农田碳汇管理政策的影响提供依据。

Model Assessment for the Effects of Carbon Sequestration Management Policies in Cropland

This paper aims to develop a new approach to assess the effects for the carbon sequestration management policies of cropland under various kinds of management strategies.A decision making model for carbon sequestration managements in croplands in accordance to the statistic method is developed and used to simulate the decision-making processes of households on the efforts for carbon sequestrations.Citing the plantation of Winter wheat in Shandong as a typical example,two kinds of carbon management strategies,practicing no-tillage and returning crop residue to field are specifically considered and built.The decision making and responses from households on carbon management strategies are then simulated using the decision making model for carbon sequestration managements in croplands,which offers new paths to assess the effects of carbon sequestration management strategies.The research results show that based on the utility-maximizing assumptions,by analyzing the cost and benefit of every kind of carbon sequestration management in cropland under various policies,the decision-making process can be simulated.By making use of the agricultural production data,the market price of grain,the area of cropland,etc,the effects of various carbon sequestration management policies and the solution for the decision making model for carbon sequestration managements in croplands can be gotten.