| AR模型预测太原盆地地震活动的趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦长源,张淑亮.AR模型预测太原盆地地震活动的趋势[J].地震研究,1997,20(4):373-377. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦长源 张淑亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 以太原盆地近５００年以来的地震序列为样本，通过平稳检验后，建立ＡＲ模型，并以此模型为基础对未来太原盆地的地震活动进行了计算和预测，结果表明：到２００５年太原盆地将发生Ｍ＝５．０级地震。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 地震活动性 AR模型 盆地 |
TENDENCY PREDICTION OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY IN TAIYUAN BASIN BY AR MODEL |
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| Qin Changyan,Zhang Shuliang.TENDENCY PREDICTION OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY IN TAIYUAN BASIN BY AR MODEL[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1997,20(4):373-377. |
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| Authors: | Qin Changyan Zhang Shuliang |
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| Abstract: | Taking seismic sequence in Taiyuan basin in the past 500 years as the sample, an AR (auto regressive) model was established through stable checking. Based on the model, seismic activity in the future in Taiyuan basin is calculated and predicted. The results show that an earthquake on M=5.0 will occur in Taiyuan basin by 2005. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction seismic activity model Shanxi |
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