Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns,causes and implications |
| |
| Authors: | Xihui Gu Vijay P. Singh Mingzhong Xiao Jinqiang Cheng |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China;2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China;3. Department of Biological &4. Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&5. M University, College Station, TX, USA;6. Han River Authority, Shantou, Guangzhou, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50 years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin. EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel |
| |
| Keywords: | GEV-CDN model nonstationarity flood frequency analysis flood risk Pearl River basin |
|
|
