海平面上升背景下的海岸带脆弱性评价——以东营市为例

海平面上升是全球海岸带区域面临的共同威胁。构建以地面高程、地面沉降速率、沟壑密度、地表坡度、人口密度、国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product，GDP）密度、建筑密度和斑块密度为指标的脆弱性评价体系，利用层次分析（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）法并采用海岸带脆弱性指数模型评价了海平面上升引起的山东东营市海岸带脆弱性状况。研究结果表明：轻度脆弱区和中度脆弱区分别为2 134.79 km²和1 967.61 km²，在评价区域中占比较大，约占评价区域的33.09%和30.50%；其次为重度脆弱区和低度脆弱区，面积分别为1 061.18 km²和891.80 km²，分别占评价区域的16.45%和13.82%；极度脆弱区面积最小，为396.31 km²，仅占评价区域的6.14%。东营市的县区中，东营区几乎完全被极度脆弱区与重度脆弱区覆盖，受海平面上升威胁最严重；广饶县也拥有较多的重度和极度脆弱区；河口区内部脆弱程度东高西低；垦利区脆弱度总体相对较低；利津县是脆弱程度最低的县区，辖区内绝大部分区域为低度或轻度脆弱区，没有重度或者极度脆弱的区域。东营市各地区可参考评估结果，有针对性地采取应对措施并在未来的经济发展与城区规划过程中充分考虑脆弱性评估的结果，适度规划海岸防护工程，为城市的可持续发展提供技术保障。

Assessment of Coastal Zone Vulnerability in the Context of Sea Level Rise: Taking Dongying City as the Example

Sea level rise is a common threat to all coastal zones in the world. By establishing a vulnerability assessment system which takes parameters such as ground elevation, land subsidence rate, gully density, surface slope, population density, gross domestic product (GDP) density, building density and patch density as the indicators and by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the coastal area vulnerability index model, the vulnerability situation of the coastal zone caused by the sea-level rising in Dongying City, Shandong Province is evaluated. The results show that the mild and moderately vulnerable areas are 2 134.79 km² and 1 967.61 km² respectively, accounting for a relatively large proportion in the evaluation area and making up about 33.09% and 30.50% of the evaluation area respectively. The heavy and low-degree vulnerable areas have an area of 1 061.18 km² and 891.80 km² respectively, making up 16.45% and 13.82% of the evaluation area respectively. The extremely vulnerable area is the smallest, being 396.31 km² and accounting for only 6.14% of the evaluation area. Among the counties and districts of Dongying City, Dongying District is almost completely covered by the heavy and extremely vulnerable areas, indicating that this district would be most seriously threatened by the sea level rise. In Guangrao County there are also many areas belonging to the heavy and extremely vulnerable areas. Within Hekou District the vulnerability degree is high in the east and low in the west. The vulnerability in Kenli District is in general relatively low. Lijin County is the area where the vulnerability is the lowest, with most parts of the county belonging to the mild and low-degree vulnerable areas and having no the heavy or extremely vulnerable areas. The results of the vulnerability assessment should be fully taken into account in the process of future economic development and urban planning in each district and county of Dongying City, so that the targeted response measures could be taken. This study can provide technical support for moderate planning of coastal protection projects and sustainable development of the city.