喀腊塑克水库诱发地震浅析

采用判别标志、对比判断方法,尤其是概率分析方法对喀腊塑克水库诱发地震进行了分析。概率分析方法是利用诱震水库和未发震水库的统计资料,考虑了库深、库容、构造应力环境、断层活动性及诱震区介质条件5个因素,再利用概率统计中的贝叶斯公式建立了预测水库能否诱震的概率模型,最终计算出结果。另外,从库区断层活动性及断裂所通过的位置、库水深度及岩石坚硬程度等方面,分析出可能产生诱发该水库地震的位置。结合工作中的体会,提出评价水库诱发地震的步骤和方法。最终分析结果表明,喀腊塑克水库诱发地震的可能性不大。

PRIMARY ANALYSIS ON INDUCED EARTHQUAKE BY KALASUK RESERVOIR

The article analyzes the reservoir induced earthquake with discriminant criterion,contrast judgement,especially,probability method.Probability method is that we build probability model with Bayesian equation,which predicts if reservoir can induce earthquake,with the data of induced earthquake and noninduced earthquake reservoirs,considering such five factors as reservoir depth,capacity,tectonic stress condition,fault activity and media condition in induced earthquake region.In addition,the article shows the possible site which maybe generate induced earthquake according to fault activity and the site where faults pass in reservoir region,reservoir depth and rock hardness etc.Combining work experience,the article proposes the steps and method of evaluating reservoir induced earthquake.Our conclusion is that it is impossible for Kalasuk reservoir to induce earthquake.