EFFECT OF INITIAL PERTURBATION OF LAND SURFACE PROCESSES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST |
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Authors: | DENG Guo ZHOU Yu-shu ZHONG Lin-hao Yue-jian ZHU Richard WOBUS Mo-zheng WEI |
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Affiliation: | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 China;Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 China;Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 China;NCEP Environmental Modelling Centre, MD 20746, USA;NCEP Environmental Modelling Centre, MD 20746, USA;NCEP Environmental Modelling Centre, MD 20746, USA |
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Abstract: | Many studies have explored the importance and influence of planetary boundary layer processes on tropical cyclones (TCs). However, few studies have focused on the influence of land surface processes on the activity of TCs. To test the effect of initial perturbations of land surface processes on TCs, a land surface process perturbation module is built in a global ensemble prediction system. Ensemble experiments for the TCs that occurred from 12 UTC 22 August to 18 UTC 24 November, 2006 show that consideration of the uncertainties within the land surface process could increase the predictability of the global ensemble prediction system. Detailed analysis on TC Xangsane (2006) indicates that the perturbation of land surface processes may increase the variation of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux. Meanwhile, the effect from land surface perturbation can be transferred to the upper atmosphere, which leads to better TC forecasts. |
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Keywords: | tropical cyclone land surface process initial perturbation ensemble prediction |
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