Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) |
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Authors: | A Costa F Dell’Erba M A Di Vito R Isaia G Macedonio G Orsi T Pfeiffer |
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Institution: | (1) Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Naples, Italy |
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Abstract: | Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area.
In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative
of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar
to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed
using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation
equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and
bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations
using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios,
were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in
the area. |
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Keywords: | Tephra fallout hazard Tephra loading Campi Flegrei caldera |
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