基于灰色系统理论的自驾车旅游可行性分析

自驾车旅游是早年流行于欧美等发达国家的一种旅游形式,近年来越来越多的人喜欢并加入到这种活动方式中来,从而使得自驾车旅游逐渐风靡全球,成为一种全球的时尚.由于中国处于发展中国家,整体经济发展水平不高,使得大众自驾车旅游还不能实现.利用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型,通过对影响自驾车旅游的经济因素进行分析,预测农村居民人均收入、农村居民恩格尔系数、农村居民出游率、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇居民恩格尔系数、城镇居民出游率,进而分析中国实现大众自驾车旅游的可行性,为中国旅游业的发展提供科学理论依据.

BASED ON GRAY MODEL THEORY AND ANALYSIS THE FEASIBLE OF SELF-MOTORINGTOUR AND RESEARCH ON STRATEGN

Self-motoringtour is a kind of travel form in such developed countries as America and Europe,etc.In recent years more and more people like and join this kind of activity ways,it is sweep the whole world since self-motoringtour gradually to make,and become a kind of global fashion.Because China is a developing countrie,the whole economic development level is not high,and make the self-motoringtour is unable to realize.utilizes the model of GM 1,1),through analysis the economic factors of self-motoringtour influence,predict the per capita income of rural residents,rural resident Engel coefficient,rural resident,urban residents disposable income,urban residents Engel coefficient,urban residents.And then analyses our country realizes the feasibility of self-motoringtour,and offer the scientific theoretical foundation for development of our country's tourist industry.