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| 位于预测区边缘附近的地震统计检验问题 | |
| 引用本文： | 史勇军,吴忠良,白玲,蒋长胜,蔡明军.位于预测区边缘附近的地震统计检验问题[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):351-357. |
| 作者姓名： | 史勇军 吴忠良 白玲 蒋长胜 蔡明军 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学学院,合肥,230026;喀什基准地震台,新疆喀什,844000 2. 中国科学院研究生院地球系统科学中心,北京,100039;中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京,100081 3. 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京,100081 |
| 摘 要： | 对位于地震预测工作所圈定的地震危险区附近的地震的统计检验问题 ,一直是地震预测研究中一个颇有争议的问题。本文以中国地震局全国年度地震趋势会商的情况为例 ,对这一问题进行了探讨。结果表明 ,将所划定的地震危险区适度扩大 ,即将现有的地震危险区范围向外扩大约 0 5° ,可以显著地提高预测地震的“命中率”。但从统计检验的角度说 ,这样做并不能提高实际地震预测的能力 ,亦即并不能使R值有显著的提高。 |
| 关 键 词： | 统计检验 地震预测 年度地震趋势会商 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4683(2003)04-0351-07 |
Earthquakes at the Edge of the Warning Area: A Statistical Consideration of a Controversial Problem in Earthquake Prediction Study |
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| Shi Yongjun , Wu Zhongliang , Bai Ling Jiang Changsheng Cai Mingjun College of Earth and Space Sciences,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei ,China Center for Earth System Science,Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing ,China Institute of Geophysics,China Seismological Bureau,Beijing ,China Kashi Standard Seismological Observatory,Xinjiang ,China.Earthquakes at the Edge of the Warning Area: A Statistical Consideration of a Controversial Problem in Earthquake Prediction Study[J].Earthquake Research in China,2003,19(4):351-357. | |
| Authors: | Shi Yongjun Wu Zhongliang Bai Ling Jiang Changsheng Cai Mingjun College of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei China Center for Earth System Science Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Institute of Geophysics China Seismological Bureau Beijing China Kashi Standard Seismological Observatory Xinjiang China |
| Institution: | Shi Yongjun 1,4) Wu Zhongliang 2,3) Bai Ling 3) Jiang Changsheng 3) Cai Mingjun 3) 1) College of Earth and Space Sciences,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China 2) Center for Earth System Science,Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China 3) Institute of Geophysics,China Seismological Bureau,Beijing 100081,China 4) Kashi Standard Seismological Observatory,Xinjiang 844000,China |
| Abstract: | |
| Keywords: | Statistical test Earthquake prediction Annual earthquake prediction in China |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |