水资源调配中PRED综合论证的初步研究

水资源调配是解决水资源利用问题的一项开源措施,必须考虑人口、资源、环境、发展的综合协调（简称ＰＲＥＤ）,分析水资源中的调配问题与ＰＲＥＤ之间的关系,指出ＰＲＥＤ综合分析是水资源调配与利用的一个重要基础。提出ＰＲＥＤ论证的基本思想、指标体系、论证模式、论证流程,并对南水北调河南省境内地级市进行水资源利用的ＰＲＥＤ综合论证,给出诊断结果与利用方略。

A PRED Synthetic Analysis Approach to Regional Water Resources Use and Transfer

Water transfer is a measure to solve water shortage problem, which must be based on efficient utilization of local water resources. Also, water use and water transfer has much to do with population, resources, environment and development (PRED). Only if all these four aspects and their coupled effects have bee considered, would the water transfer scale for different goals such as the basic survival need, the highest economic output, the best eco environmental effect, the most stable social security and sustainable development, and a relatively satisfactory result considering all the above aspects be given. So, PRED synthetic analysis is a very important approach to discuss how the water resources are used and how much water needs to be transferred for a region. PRED synthetic analysis is human oriented. According to the economic development level and the importance of food security in China, the analysis flow of water demand in a region is firstly to consider water requirement for human survival, production and development which is fundamental, then to consider water demand in the human survival environment. By thoroughly diagnosing water demand in every aspects related to population, resources, environment, and development, problems can be found out and the strategies and countermeasures for solving the problems can be given so that water resources management can be best served. The index value for PRED synthetic analysis with different levels such as high, medium and low should be carefully choosen based on local social and natural conditions and be varied with scientific improvment and readjustment of rules and regulations. The analyzing unit should not be too big, in case when a uniform index within an area is used to do comparative ananlysis. This paper takes water resources use in Henan province as a case study and presents the result and use strategy.