Influence of ground-motion correlation on probabilistic assessments of seismic hazard and loss: sensitivity analysis |
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Authors: | Vladimir Sokolov Friedemann Wenzel |
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Institution: | (1) Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics, Sonneggstrasse 5, ETH Zurich, NO, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground-motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground
motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this work we
compared the effects of variations in the between-earthquake correlation and in the site-to-site correlation on probabilistic
estimations of seismic damage and loss for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges)
of a network. Taiwan Island has been chosen as a test case for this study because of relatively high seismicity and previous
experience in earthquake hazard modelling. The hazard and loss estimations were performed using Monte Carlo approach on the
basis of stochastic catalogues and random ground-motion fields. We showed that the influence of correlation on parameters
of seismic hazard, characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage depend, on one hand, on level of hazard
and probability level of interest (return period) and, on the other hand, the relative influence of each type of correlation
is not equal. |
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Keywords: | |
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