岩溶隧道涌突水灾害危险性评价指标体系及量化取值方法

深入分析了岩溶隧道施工过程中涌突水灾害的超前预测预报及风险评价体系的研究现状，提出了国内外关于岩溶隧道涌突水灾害的超前预测预报尚处于探索性研究阶段、如何提高预测预报的精度成为长大深埋隧道施工中涌突水灾害防治最为迫切、最为关键的问题。采用理论分析与实例统计相结合的方法，查明了岩溶隧道涌突水灾害的孕灾环境与主要致灾因子，选取“岩石可溶性、地质构造条件、地表汇水强度、地下水循环交替强度、隧道与地下水位的相对位置关系”5个评价因子，建立了岩溶隧道涌突水灾害危险性预测评价指标体系，并采用定性与定量化相结合的方法，重点对评价指标的量化取值方法进行了研究。

Index System of Risk Assessment on Karst Tunnel Water Inrush Disasters and Value of Quantitative Method

Water bursting hazard had taken a significant safety challenge to the deep buried tunnel engineering in the karst area of southwest China，and its prediction and risk assessment were still at the exploratory research stage. It was put forward that the most important issue in prevention and control of water inrush disasters was how to improve the accuracy of prediction and forecast in advance in deep buried tunnel construction.Based on the study of statistics and disaster formation conditions and control factors, five evaluation factors were selected, which were soluble rocks, geological structure condition and the surface catchment condition, the strength of groundwater cycles, the relationship between embedded depth of tunnel and underground water level. The index system of risk assessment on karst tunnel water inrush disasters was established, and quantitative methods of the evaluation indexes were discussed and studied. The study had provided deep buried karst tunnel construction with scientific and effective advanced geological forecast methods.