Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Bremerhaven, Germany;2. Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, n° 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain;3. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute for Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany;4. Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;5. Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Parque Científico UPV/EHU, Edificio Sede 1, Planta 1, Barrio Sarriena, s/n, 48940 Leioa, Spain;6. National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France;7. Laboratoire d''Excellence CORAIL, Moorea, French Polynesia;8. University of the Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences, Mytilene, Greece;9. University Iuav of Venice, Tolentini, Santa Croce 191, 30135 Venezia, Italy;10. Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Operational Directorate Natural Environment (OD Nature), Marine Ecology and Management (MARECO), Vautierstraat 29, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;11. University of Tartu, Ringi 35, 80012 Pärnu, Estonia;12. National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kemitorvet Building 201, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark;13. Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia;14. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy;15. National Marine Park of Zakynthos, El. Venizelou 1, 29100 Zakynthos, Greece |
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| Abstract: | Bayesian belief networks are finding increasing application in adaptive ecosystem management where data are limited and uncertainty is high. The combined effect of multiple stressors is one area where considerable uncertainty exists. Our study area, the Great Barrier Reef is simultaneously data-rich – concerning the physical and biological environment – and data-poor – concerning the effects of interacting stressors. We used a formal expert-elicitation process to obtain estimates of outcomes associated with a variety of scenarios that combined stressors both within and outside the control of local managers. There was much stronger consensus about certain stressor effects – such as between temperature anomalies and bleaching – than others, such as the relationship between water quality and coral cover. In general, the expert outlook for the Great Barrier Reef is pessimistic, with the potential for climate change effects potentially to overshadow the effects of local management actions. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Conservation planning Coral reef Risk assessment Bayesian belief network Expert elicitation |
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