沙澧河流域防汛气象预报服务效益评估方法

为了便于沙澧河流域防汛气象预报服务效果的比较和评判,进一步提高服务水平,从预报准确率、预报服务覆盖率、预报服务时效率、可能预防能力等4个方面对气象服务效益进行评估,给出了定量评估的方法.其中,预报服务时效和预报准确率是决定防汛气象预报服务效益大小的因子,这两个因子具有可提高的潜力,是提高气象服务水平和防汛效益的研究重点.预报服务时效和预报准确率同时提高才能取得更好的效益,任何一面都是不可忽视的.

Method for Forecasting Service Benefit on Flood Prevention of Shali River Basin

In order to facilitate to comparison and judgment,and further raise the forecasting services of flood prevention in Shali river basin,the essay make a quantitative evaluation method of the weather forecasting services from the forecasting accuracy,coverage of forecasting service,the efficiency of forecasting service,the ability to flood prevention.Among them,the forecasting accuracy and the efficiency of forecasting service are the determinate factors of service benefit to flood prevention.The two factors c...