博格达山南坡黑沟8号冰川融水径流随机过程的模拟

冰川融水径流过程是由一个反映气温影响的确定性系统和一个反映时间序列随机特性的随机系统综合作用的结果。本文提出用一个以气温为自变量的多元回归模型和一个自回归类模型相结合的组合模型来描述冰川融水径流日平均流量过程。结果表明,模拟系列和实测系列间达到α=0.01的相关,7—8月平均拟合误差约为±20.0％。

A Stochastic Meltwater Runoff Model of Heigou Glacier No. 8 in the Southern Slope of Mt. Bogda

Like all other natural processes, the melting process of glacier has the properties on stochasticity and irreversibility. The authors suggest that the mean daily discharge process of glacier melting be regarded as the combination of a definite system indicating the air temperature influence and a stochastic system reflecting stochasticity in a time series. A coupled model consisted of a multivariable regression model with temperature as its variable and a sutoregression model is derived. The correlation between the simulated series and observaed series is significant with the degree of condidence a = 0.01. During July and August, the mean simulative error is 20.0%.