用灰色关联分析研究塔城地区河川径流补给

中国干旱地区水文情势的主要特征之一是河川径流补给的多样化, 而径流补给来源的分析对于了解一个地区年径流量的多寡, 径流年内分配, 洪水和枯水等都是十分重要的。新疆塔城地区的河流一直被认为是主要由季节积雪融水补给, 那么雨水补给究竟在年径流量中占有什么地位, 值得加以研究。我们选择卡琅古尔河卡琅古尔站的年平均流量(Q)、年降水量(p)、每年4-6月的降水量(P_4-6)以及4-5月平均气温之和(T_4-5)作为分析补给的基本资料, 用灰色关联分析进行研究, 结果为r(QP)>r(QP_4-6)>r(QT_4-5)即年平均流量与年降水量的关联系数最大。同时, 我们也计算了QP、QP(_4-6)、QT(_4-5)的直线相关, 相关系数分别为0.785、0.808和-0.429。与关联分析结果不同。我们初步讨论了不同的原因。

Applying Grey Relational Grade to Analyse the Supply of Runoff in Tacheng Area

One of the main characteristics of the hydrological regime in the arid land of China is its multi-supply of river runoff. The analysis of river runoff supply is improtant to calculate the annual discharge,analyse the annual distribution, flood and low water. The supply of melted water of seasonally accumulated snow has been regarded as main supply of river runoff in Tacheng area foralong time, so its worth researching the proportion in annual discharge. We selected the annual mean discharge(Q), annual precipitation(P), the precipitation from April to June(P_4-8) and the sum of mean temperature in April to May(T_4-6), as the base material, and applied grey relational grade to analyse the supply. The results calculated is: r(QP)>r(QP_4-6)>r(QT_4-5), or the relational coefficient between annual mean discharge and annual precipitation is the biggest. We also anlyse the correlation of QP, QP(_4-6)and QT(_4-5), the correlation coefficients are 0.785, 0.808, and-0.429respectively, which are different from the results gotten by relational analysis. We preliminarily discussed the reason, which resulted in the difference.