Affiliation: | 1.Xinjiang Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone, School of Geographic Science and Tourism,Normal University of Xinjiang,Urumqi,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi,China;3.Institute of Desert and Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi,China |
Abstract: | We examined the changes in streamflow on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China, over two time scales: the past 500 years, based on dendrochronology data; and the past 50 years, based on streamflow data from hydrological stations. The method of artificial neural networks built from the data of the 50-year period was used to reconstruct the streamflow of the 500-year period. The results indicate that streamflow has undergone seven high-flow periods and four low-flow periods during the past 500 years. To identify possible transition points in the streamflow, we applied the Mann–Kendall and running T tests to the 50- and 500-year periods, respectively. During the past 500 years, streamflow has changed significantly from low to high flow about three to four times, and from high to low flow about three to five times. Over the recent 50 years, there have been three phases of variation in river runoff, and the most distinct transition of streamflow occurred in 1996. |