江西省吉安县地质灾害气象预警研究

暴雨型地质灾害具有突发性强的特点,降雨是地质灾害的触发因素,根据降雨量进行地质灾害预警预报可以较大减少地质灾害损失。文章在吉安县崩塌、滑坡、泥石流地质灾害易发程度分区的基础上,采用显式统计模型,通过分析历史地质灾害和日降雨量资料之间的关系,研究吉安县地质灾害气象预警模型。研究表明:当日降雨量达到50 mm、70 mm、110 mm、160 mm时,不同等级崩塌、滑坡、泥石流地质灾害易发区进入相应地质灾害气象预警状态。吉安县地质灾害气象预警区划成果填补了吉安县县域地质灾害气象预警的空白,为地质灾害预警决策提供了量化指标。

Study on meteorological early warning of geological disasters in Ji'an County,Jiangxi Province

Geological disasters caused by rainstorm are characterized with suddenly happening. Rainfall is the triggering factor of geological disasters, therefore, disaster warning and prediction according to rainfall can greatly reduce the loss of geological disasters. Based on the geological disaster susceptibility zoning of collapse, landslide and debris flow in Ji'an County, this paper researched meteorological early warning model of Ji'an County geological disaster by using the explicit statistical model and analyzing the relation between historical geological disasters and daily rainfall. When the daily rainfall reaches 50 mm, 70 mm, 110 mm, 160 mm, respectively, different levels of collapse, landslide and debris flow prone areas would come into corresponding geological disaster warning state. The research on Ji’an meteorological early warning zoning filled the blank of meteorological early warning of geological disaster in the county, and provided quantitative indicators for geological disaster warning decision-making.