都江堰中兴镇高位滑坡泥石流灾害致灾成因与发展趋势

2013年7月10日上午10时左右，四川省都江堰市中兴镇三溪村五里坡突发高位滑坡泥石流灾害，造成11户居民房屋被毁，52人遇难，109人失踪。为研究五里坡滑坡泥石流灾害的致灾成因与发展趋势，在实地调查的基础上，从地质灾害形成的主客观因素方面对致灾成因进行了分析，并结合其现状特征，对其发展趋势进行了研究。研究认为，高位山谷地形、斜向斜坡结构易滑、突降暴雨、灾害隐蔽性强以及村民防灾避灾意识不强等因素是五里坡滑坡泥石流灾害的主要致灾因素；山体整体稳定性差，暴雨频繁，再次发生滑坡泥石流灾害的可能性较大，且在本次致灾范围的基础上威胁范围有进一步扩大的可能，建议威胁范围区内尚未搬离的住户尽快搬迁，并加强监测，开展综合工程治理。

The Cause and Development Tendency of the High-locality Landslide and Debris Flow Disaster of Zhongxing Town,Dujiangyan City

At 10：00 a. m. , July 10, 2013, high-locality landslide and debris flow disaster took place in the Wulipo village, Dujiangyan City, Sichuan province, which caused 52 victims dead, 109 people missing, and 11 households destroyed. On the basis of field investigation, the causes and development tendency of the disaster were analyzed with the current characteristics. It proves that the high topography, oblique slope structure prone to sliding, unexpected rainstorm, strong concealment and dweller＇s weak consciousness of disaster prevention are the main causes; for the poor overall stability of the hillslope, and the frequent rainstorm, there is still possibility for another landslide; and moreover, the threatening area will probably further expand. According to the causes and development tendency of the disaster, proposals can be made as relocating the residents within the threatening area as soon as possible, strengthening monitoring, and carrying out comprehensive engineering treatment.