沱江上游长期洪水预报初探

沱江上游洪水属典型天然河道洪水特性,采用历史洪水系列,分析了厄尔尼诺现象和太阳黑子活动对沱江上游洪水的影响,并通过分析周期变化规律及数理统计分析预报等多种方法,综合分析了各种相关因子对沱江上游三皇庙水文站历年最大流量的影响,从而提高了沱江上游长期洪水预报精度。

Preliminary Study on the Long-term Flood Forecasting for the Upper Reaches of Tuojiang River

Floods in the upper reaches of Tuojing River belong to the typical model purely natural characteristics. Adopting the history flood the series, analyzing the El Nino phenomenon with sunspot activity as the influence to the flood, through analysis of the regulation of the period change and various mathematic statistics methods of analysis forecasts, the paper provided the synthetical analysis for each kind of and related factors influenced to the annual maximum discharge in upper reaches of Tuojing River of Sanhuangmiao gauging station. It increased the accuracy of the long-term flood forecasting in upper reaches of Tuojiang River.