气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价

将耦合暴露度、灾害风险、敏感性与抗压性的脆弱性评估模型应用于中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价，从水资源供需平衡角度分析了气候变化对东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响。结果表明，2000年气候条件下，我国东部季风区接近90%的区域水资源处于中度脆弱及以上状态。其中水资源中度和高度脆弱区域约占全区的75%，极端脆弱区域接近15%。中国北方海河、黄河、淮河和辽河流域的水资源脆弱性最高。未来气候变化影响将加剧水资源脆弱性的风险，不同RCP排放情景下2030年代我国东部季风区水资源中度脆弱及以上区域面积有明显的扩大，极端脆弱区域将达到20%～25%。由于未来需水的进一步增加，中国北方水资源脆弱性的格局并未发生根本变化，而南方东南诸河等区域将面临可能发生的水危机。

Impact and Assessment of Climate Change on the Water Resources Vulnerability in the Eastern China Monsoon Region

Based on the assessment model established on the basis of the sensitivity, adaptability of the water resources system, exposure and droughts risk, from the supply-demand balance view, the water resources vulnerability were evaluated in the eastern China monsoon region. The results show that under current conditions in 2000, nearly 90% of the research region faces moderate or serious vulnerability of water resources, where 75% is moderately or highly vulnerable and 15% is extremely vulnerable. Huanghe, Huaihe, Haihe and Liaohe River basins have the high water resources vulnerability. The future climate change will aggravate the risk of water resources vulnerability. Under different RCP emission scenarios in 2030s, moderately vulnerable areas will significantly expand in the eastern China monsoon region. Extremely vulnerable areas will account for 20% to 25%. Due to the increasing water demand, the water resources vulnerability pattern will not change in North China. And the southeastern river basins will also face possible water crisis in the future.