全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库，使用投入产出法，分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示，随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张，全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年，发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强，该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t，占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。

Analysis of Changes in Carbon Emissions Embodied in Global Trade and Corresponding Influences

Based on input-output model and latest data from GTAP8 database (Global Trade Analysis Project), the changes of embodied carbon emissions in North group and South group countries were analyzed in 2007 relative to 2004 resulted from international trade changes and corresponding influence on global carbon emissions. The results show that with the expending scale of imports and exports from developing countries, the shares of global embodied emissions in imports and exports of developing countries were both increasing. From 2004 to 2007, the exporting structures were enhancing: the developed focused on exports of high-end equipment manufacturing and service, and the developing focused on resource products and energy intensive goods as well as low-to-medium level manufacturing. This resulted in the increase of global CO2 emissions of 415 Mt, which accounted for 63% of embodied emissions growth during this period. The share of embodied carbon emissions from developing countries?exports is expected to further increase in the future. The changes in embodied carbon emissions flows within North-South group caused by international trade changes will have an increasingly important impact on global climate change actions.