滇西北人口发展与粮食需求分析

粮食对人口和社会发展起关键作用。滇西北的16个当数民族聚居县，在人口稳步增长的同时，由于自然条件恶劣等多因素综合作用，粮食增产的潜力有限，用分要素推算法预测出2010年项目区的人口数，再根据2010年社会经济发展各层次对粮食的要求，按低，中，高3个标准预测出各县的粮食需求量，分析得出，4地州首府所在市县和维西县为可满足粮食需求地区；大理片区的其余6县和德钦县为易满足粮食需求地区，怒江3县和宁蒗县为难满足粮食需求地区，各县应各有侧重地采取适当措施尽力满足人口发展对粮食的需求。

Analysis on the Population Development and Grain Needs of Northwestern Yunnan

Grain is key to population and social development. With population steady increasing, it is difficult to increase grain for northwestern Yunnan, which includes 16 minority nationality counties, due to multiple effect of many factors, such as bad natural conditions. It is forecast by reckoning according to factors that the population of item aera in 2010. Then, according to the requirement of grain by social economy development of 2010,and the high, middle, low standards, it is forecasted that 5 counties can meet, 7 counties can easily meet, and 4 counties hardly meet the needs of grain. Proper measures ought to be adopted so as to meet the needs of grain by population development.